Demo Track Record
Each public model portfolio runs in an internal virtual demo account with $1,000 in practice cash — not customer capital. Auto-rebalancing follows each portfolio's schedule so we can measure forward results, not just backtests.
Momentum Fusion — three paper candidates
Initialized · awaiting verified signalThree frozen momentum strategies with separate $1,000 virtual starting balances. That journal is still unfilled. The same three rules are also in Choose portfolio on Live Trading, using the latest completed month-end and SHY for the cash sleeve.
Lead paper candidate
Protected MA12
Initial virtual cash
$1,000.00
0recorded events · no forward P&L yet
Risk-off: 100% cash below the QQQ 12-month moving average
Challenger
Adaptive MA18
Initial virtual cash
$1,000.00
0recorded events · no forward P&L yet
Risk-off: 50% stocks / 50% cash below the QQQ 18-month average
High-risk control
Aggressive
Initial virtual cash
$1,000.00
0recorded events · no forward P&L yet
100% stocks regardless of the QQQ trend
Paper research only. Source: frozen ledger started 2026-11-09. Quote ingestion, automatic rebalancing, broker fills, and daily NAV updates are not connected. Historical backtests are excluded from these forward accounts.
Fund manager reporting
Export actual virtual demo snapshots for independent review. These are not client accounts or audited live returns.
Virtual demo accounts
Each portfolio auto-rebalances with $1,000 in virtual cash on our side — not customer capital. Returns compound daily. Values reflect the latest daily snapshot (UTC).
Showing 4 of 4 demo accounts
| Portfolio | Allocation | Value | Total return | Trend | Today | Tracking since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stocks & ETFs Equity, bond, and sector ETF allocation models. | |||||||
| Faber GTAA (5) | 100% cash | $984.00as of Nov 13, 2026 | -1.60% | +0.00% | Sep 21, 2026 | View | |
| Permanent Portfolio Hybrid | In market · SPY, DBC | $968.71as of Nov 13, 2026 | -3.13% | -0.13% | Aug 26, 2026 | View | |
| Balanced | In market · VTI, VXUS | $963.58as of Nov 13, 2026 | -3.64% | -0.44% | Jul 1, 2026 | View | |
| QQQ Bond Gold | 72% cash · DBMF | $954.64as of Nov 13, 2026 | -4.54% | +0.41% | Sep 24, 2026 | View | |
Turnover, cash exposure and modeled costs
Descriptive forward-demo accounting, not investment alpha. Cash percentages reflect the latest saved daily snapshot; turnover sums executed buy and sell notionals, not annualized turnover. Fees are modeled costs, not independently verified brokerage commissions.
| Portfolio | Trades | Buys / sells | Trade notional | Modeled fees | Fees / start NAV | Snapshot cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| permanent-hybrid | 10 | 7 / 3 | $3,105.36 | $1.56 | 0.16% | 0.00% |
| balanced | 7 | 5 / 2 | $2,636.34 | $0.90 | 0.09% | 0.00% |
| faber-gtaa5 | 16 | 8 / 8 | $4,800.58 | $2.38 | 0.24% | 100.00% |
| qqq-ief-gld-dbmf | 18 | 10 / 8 | $4,625.73 | $2.30 | 0.23% | 71.84% |
Historical signal contribution and dollar cash drag are unavailable until dated target weights and decision events are recorded. These values are not inferred from current allocations.
Risk-regime decision history
Recorded model intentions, not evidence of trades or value added. Counts are observations rather than days in each regime. The cash-like sleeve includes short-duration Treasury ETFs, whose market value can fluctuate.
| Portfolio | Decisions | Normal | Caution | Defensive | Latest regime | Latest cash-like target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| permanent-hybrid | 15 | 4 | 11 | 0 | normal | 64.5% |
| balanced | 15 | 5 | 10 | 0 | normal | 100.0% |
| faber-gtaa5 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 0 | normal | 0.0% |
| qqq-ief-gld-dbmf | 15 | 4 | 11 | 0 | normal | 0.0% |
Cash drag, avoided losses and regime alpha cannot be estimated from these counts alone; they require decision-time prices, filled weights and subsequent aligned benchmark prices. Pre-instrumentation history is unavailable.
Cash opportunity scenario vs SPY
Counterfactual: preceding observed cash invested in SPY adjusted-close returns during matching intervals. Positive values represent missed hypothetical upside; negative values represent hypothetical losses avoided. This is not realized profit, actual cash drag, or evidence of strategy alpha.
| Portfolio | Matched intervals | Skipped intervals | Observed mean cash | SPY alternative P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| permanent-hybrid | 41 | 33 | 0.5% | -$0.11 |
| balanced | 71 | 57 | 6.7% | +$3.69 |
| faber-gtaa5 | 32 | 21 | 70.8% | -$42.04 |
| qqq-ief-gld-dbmf | 29 | 21 | 53.0% | -$21.73 |
Requires 20 matched consecutive observations. Does not simulate fills, fees, spread, dividends on cash, or subsequent allocation changes. Missing valuation days may bias this diagnostic; it is only a research scenario.
Forward risk diagnostics
Observed peak-to-trough losses and consecutive-snapshot changes in virtual NAV. Not annualized risk estimates. Benchmarks are intentionally withheld until matching total-return price histories can be verified.
| Portfolio | Snapshots | Observed drawdown | Worst observed change | Data quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faber GTAA (5) | 54 | -1.83% | -0.89% | Review session gaps |
| Permanent Portfolio Hybrid | 75 | -4.53% | -1.74% | Review session gaps |
| Balanced | 129 | -6.52% | -2.44% | Review session gaps |
| QQQ Bond Gold | 51 | -5.61% | -2.45% | Review session gaps |
These measures span recorded snapshots only. A missing valuation day can conceal a larger intervening loss, so clean brokerage reconciliations and complete session history remain required.
Forward results versus SPY total-return proxy
SPY split- and dividend-adjusted close, matched only to identical portfolio observation dates. At least 20 matching sessions are required. This is a preliminary comparison, not proof of alpha or lower risk; trading costs, taxes and portfolio contribution timing can differ.
| Portfolio | Shared sessions | Portfolio | SPY adjusted | Excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faber GTAA (5) | 40 | -1.60% | -2.47% | +0.87% |
| Permanent Portfolio Hybrid | 53 | -2.98% | -1.28% | -1.70% |
| Balanced | 90 | -3.42% | +0.66% | -4.08% |
| QQQ Bond Gold | 37 | -4.54% | -1.67% | -2.87% |
“—” means fewer than 20 shared dates or unreliable input. QuantLucid does not label a strategy outperforming based on insufficient evidence.