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Theta Regime

Growth Risk
Featured
MC fragile

Weekly credit spread basket across major ETFs. Sells bull put spreads below the 50-day SMA and bear call spreads above it — capturing premium when trends mean-revert.

78
Diversification

Diversification

78

Volatility Profile

Low–moderate

Horizon

Weeks

Live House Account

Forward performance on a virtual $1,000 autopilot account since 8/2/2026.

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Account value

$1,006.87

As of Aug 7, 2026 UTC

Total return

Cumulative since activation

+0.69%

Today's return

Since midnight UTC

-0.06%

Tracking days

6

Total Return History

Cumulative return since activation — the same metric as the Total Return card above. A rising line means recovery over time; it does not mean today's return is positive.

Theta Regime

Hover a date for cumulative and that day's return. For today's move, see Today's Return in the summary.

Illustrative Reference Ranges

Live market backtest unavailable. Showing educational ranges only — not live performance or a forecast.

Monte Carlo block-bootstrap P5 Sharpe is below 1.0 on 5-year daily returns — demo track record only; paper and live trading are not available.

Expected Return

9–10%

annualized

Volatility

6–8%

annualized

Sharpe Ratio

0.9–1.0

risk-adjusted

Max Drawdown

-14% to -16%

historical reference

Trading Logic

End-of-day signals only — no day trading. See full trading logic documentation.

Rebalance Schedule

Weekly (Mondays)

Drift > 5%

Min Holding

21 days

Before discretionary sells

Trend Filter

MA50 → SHY

Buy when MA stack aligned; exit to cash when broken

Risk Alerts

Defensive regime

VIX spike, DD halt — any business day

AI Rationale

Seven-ETF basket (SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, XLF, XLE, GLD). Each name independently sells a $1-wide 5-DTE spread at 0.20 delta when price diverges from its 50-day SMA. Put spreads on pullbacks, call spreads on extensions. 1% portfolio risk per active ticker.

Bull Case

Walk-forward backtest: 11.8% CAGR, 95% win rate, Sharpe 1.56 at 1% risk/ticker. Diversification across sectors smooths weekly income. $1-wide spreads suit small accounts (~$100 max risk per contract).

Bear Case

Gap risk on macro events can breach short strikes. Block-bootstrap MC P5 Sharpe ~0.7 — walk-forward validated but path fragile; size conservatively.

Behavior During Downturns

Put spreads activate below SMA on each name independently. Call spreads pause on falling names. Basket diversification limits single-ticker blowups.

Holdings

Template allocation using real ETF and stock tickers.

XLFXLF bear call spread (SMA 50)
50%
XLEXLE bear call spread (SMA 50)
50%
Research only. Not financial advice. For educational and informational purposes only. Past performance does not indicate future results.