Capital Guard
Capital preservation first. Blends investment-grade bonds, dividend growers, and quality equities — optimized for minimum volatility with MA100 trend protection.
Diversification
30
Volatility Profile
2.8%
3-year backtest
Horizon
3+ years
Live House Account
Forward performance on a virtual $1,000 autopilot account since 8/2/2026.
Account value
$998.04
As of Aug 7, 2026 UTC
Total return
Cumulative since activation
-0.20%
Today's return
Since midnight UTC
+0.06%
Tracking days
6
Total Return History
Cumulative return since activation — the same metric as the Total Return card above. A rising line means recovery over time; it does not mean today's return is positive.
Hover a date for cumulative and that day's return. For today's move, see Today's Return in the summary.
Historical Performance
3.0-year daily MA100 → SHY trend filter at stated weights (Yahoo Finance, 6 holdings, as of 2026-08-06). Research only — not a forecast or live track record.
Monte Carlo block-bootstrap P5 Sharpe is below 1.0 on 5-year daily returns — demo track record only; paper and live trading are not available.
Annualized Return
+2.2%
3-year backtest
Volatility
2.8%
annualized
Sharpe Ratio
1.15
excess vs T-bills
Max Drawdown
-2.5%
backtested
Trading Logic
End-of-day signals only — no day trading. See full trading logic documentation.
Rebalance Schedule
Monthly (1st business day)
Drift > 5%
Min Holding
21 days
Before discretionary sells
Trend Filter
MA100 → SHY
Buy when MA stack aligned; exit to cash when broken
Risk Alerts
Defensive regime
VIX spike, DD halt — any business day
AI Rationale
Embodies Buffett Rule #1 and Tier habit #1: never lose money. Min-vol optimizer on BND, SCHD, VIG, and wide-moat staples. MA100 filter steps out of weakening equity sleeves.
Bull Case
May preserve capital better than pure equity in corrections while earning income from dividends and bonds.
Bear Case
Monte Carlo block-bootstrap P5 Sharpe below 1.0. Min-vol objective sacrifices upside in strong bull markets.
Behavior During Downturns
Designed as the most defensive equity+bond blend in the catalog. Trend filter accelerates rotation to SHY.
Holdings
Min-vol optimizer on bonds + dividend growers + quality staples; MA100 trend filter. Current allocation: VIG 7.31%, KO 5.86%, BRK-B 5.85%, JNJ 3.57%, SCHD 2.09%, 75.31% SHY.