Buffett 90/10
Warren Buffett's passive benchmark: 90% low-cost S&P 500 index fund and 10% short-term government bonds. He recommended this in his 2013 shareholder letter as instructions for managing his wife's inheritance.
Diversification
6
Volatility Profile
9.9%
5-year backtest
Horizon
10+ years
Live House Account
Forward performance on a virtual $1,000 autopilot account since 8/2/2026.
Account value
$1,024.53
As of Aug 7, 2026 UTC
Total return
Cumulative since activation
+2.45%
Today's return
Since midnight UTC
-0.33%
Tracking days
6
Total Return History
Cumulative return since activation — the same metric as the Total Return card above. A rising line means recovery over time; it does not mean today's return is positive.
Hover a date for cumulative and that day's return. For today's move, see Today's Return in the summary.
Historical Performance
5.0-year daily MA200 → SHY trend filter at stated weights (Yahoo Finance, 2 holdings, as of 2026-08-06). Research only — not a forecast or live track record.
Monte Carlo block-bootstrap P5 Sharpe is below 1.0 on 5-year daily returns — demo track record only; paper and live trading are not available.
Annualized Return
+12.4%
5-year backtest
Volatility
9.9%
annualized
Sharpe Ratio
1.24
excess vs T-bills
Max Drawdown
-9.1%
backtested
Trading Logic
End-of-day signals only — no day trading. See full trading logic documentation.
Rebalance Schedule
Weekly (Mondays)
Drift > 5%
Min Holding
21 days
Before discretionary sells
Trend Filter
MA200 → SHY
Buy when MA stack aligned; exit to cash when broken
Risk Alerts
Defensive regime
VIX spike, DD halt — any business day
AI Rationale
Fixed 90% VOO / 10% SHY — faithful to the 2013 letter. A 200-day trend guard with 3-day entry confirmation steps equity to SHY when the S&P 500 loses structural support (Jul 2026 backtest: Sharpe ~1.18 vs ~0.78 buy-and-hold, max DD ~−9% vs ~−23%).
Bull Case
Ultra-low cost with trend overlay: backtest Sharpe ~1.18 vs ~0.78 buy-and-hold, max DD ~−9% vs ~−23%.
Bear Case
Monte Carlo block-bootstrap P5 Sharpe below 1.0. Trend exits can lag V-shaped recoveries.
Behavior During Downturns
When VOO falls below its 200-day average for three consecutive days, the equity sleeve rotates to SHY until trend recovers. The 10% bond sleeve remains as ballast.
Holdings
Fixed 90% VOO / 10% SHY (2013 letter benchmark) with MA200 + 3-day entry confirmation. Current allocation: VOO 90%, 10% SHY.